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Build a system dynamics model - the agile way
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System dynamic models are different !
What is a dynamic model? - our example
... why should you care about dynamic models?
Why are they "digital twin" models?
Learning Objectives
CPD/CPE
Slide shows, PDFs and the models
Background: slide-show and PDF
How systems work .. + our diagrams
The 4-step modeling process
Systems feature feedback !
Why is this an "Agile" approach?
Get ready: slide-show and PDF
Get the Silico modeling app + models
A tour of the Silico app screen
Set the timings for this and other models
STEP 1: slide-show and PDF
Step 1: Specify the Outcome of interest
1a: Add a Variable for the Outcome of interest
The Variable's settings explained
More on the 2 time-series throughout the model
Copy Actual values in from a spreadsheet
1b: Add a results Chart
1c: Create a Scenario
STEP 2: slide-show and PDF
The rationale for Step 2 – and how it works for the crime case
2a: Add a Stock of criminals to the model – and crimes per criminal
2b: Link items for calculating
2c Explore sensitivities of model results
2d: How Stocks must change to get the Preferred outcome (1 of 2)
Find more Stocks driving performance
2e: Add a Stock of Officers to the model + test sensitivities
'Look up' how Officers' time affects the criminals' crime-rate
2f: Add a Lookup function to the model for the impact of officers' time
2g: How Stocks must change to get Preferred outcome (2 of 2)
2h Add Notes to document your models
STEP 3: slide-show and PDF
How Flows fill and drain Stocks
3a: Add Flows of Criminals and Officers to the model
The Stock-and-Flow framework and 'bath-tub' metaphor
3b: Explore the Flow-rates needed for the Preferred outcome
How Stock-Flow numbers work + a spreadsheet equivalent
Stocks and Flows for other cases
Why is this an "agile" approach?
STEP 4: slide-show and PDF
Step 4: Stocks and Decisions drive Flow rates
How limited potential Stocks slow Flow rates
4a: Add a limited potential Stock to the model
How existing Stocks drive Flows
4b: Add to the model Officers driving Flows of criminals
4c: Decisions drive Flow rates (and in the model )
4d: When Stocks drive their own Flows (and in the model}
4e: New Stocks also drive Flows (and in the model}
Explore Decisions to achieve the Preferred outcome
Test extreme values
Present results to others
Use clones, symbols and story notes
How was the course for you?
Introduction
System dynamic models are different !
Preview
What is a dynamic model? - our example
Preview
... why should you care about dynamic models?
Preview
Why are they "digital twin" models?
Preview
Learning Objectives
Preview
CPD/CPE
Preview
Slide shows, PDFs and the models
Preview
Background and principles
Background: slide-show and PDF
How systems work .. + our diagrams
Preview
The 4-step modeling process
Preview
Systems feature feedback !
Preview
Why is this an "Agile" approach?
Preview
Get ready
Get ready: slide-show and PDF
Get the Silico modeling app + models
Preview
A tour of the Silico app screen
Preview
Set the timings for this and other models
STEP 1: How the Outcome of interest changes over time
STEP 1: slide-show and PDF
Step 1: Specify the Outcome of interest
Preview
1a: Add a Variable for the Outcome of interest
The Variable's settings explained
More on the 2 time-series throughout the model
Copy Actual values in from a spreadsheet
1b: Add a results Chart
1c: Create a Scenario
Preview
STEP 2: "Stocks" drive the changing Outcome
STEP 2: slide-show and PDF
The rationale for Step 2 – and how it works for the crime case
Preview
2a: Add a Stock of criminals to the model – and crimes per criminal
2b: Link items for calculating
2c Explore sensitivities of model results
2d: How Stocks must change to get the Preferred outcome (1 of 2)
Find more Stocks driving performance
2e: Add a Stock of Officers to the model + test sensitivities
'Look up' how Officers' time affects the criminals' crime-rate
2f: Add a Lookup function to the model for the impact of officers' time
2g: How Stocks must change to get Preferred outcome (2 of 2)
Preview
2h Add Notes to document your models
STEP 3: Flows change the Stocks
STEP 3: slide-show and PDF
How Flows fill and drain Stocks
Preview
3a: Add Flows of Criminals and Officers to the model
The Stock-and-Flow framework and 'bath-tub' metaphor
Preview
3b: Explore the Flow-rates needed for the Preferred outcome
How Stock-Flow numbers work + a spreadsheet equivalent
Stocks and Flows for other cases
Why is this an "agile" approach?
Preview
STEP 4: Stocks and Decisions drive Flow rates
STEP 4: slide-show and PDF
Step 4: Stocks and Decisions drive Flow rates
Preview
How limited potential Stocks slow Flow rates
4a: Add a limited potential Stock to the model
How existing Stocks drive Flows
4b: Add to the model Officers driving Flows of criminals
4c: Decisions drive Flow rates (and in the model )
4d: When Stocks drive their own Flows (and in the model}
4e: New Stocks also drive Flows (and in the model}
Explore Decisions to achieve the Preferred outcome
Test extreme values
Complete and present the model's results
Present results to others
Use clones, symbols and story notes
Your feedback please !
How was the course for you?
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